Tudor Pelagos FXD M25407N (M25407N, 25407N). Current Prices, JDM Listings, Market Analysis
The Tudor Pelagos FXD M25407N is a purpose-built dive watch developed in collaboration with the French Navy, carrying a fixed-strap lug system that sets it apart from the standard Pelagos lineup. Tonbo tracks the Tudor Pelagos FXD M25407N M25407N because it consistently surfaces in the Japanese gray market at prices that create meaningful spread against US resale values. With 61 verified eBay comps establishing a reliable US price band, this is one of the more data-supported Tudor arbitrage targets we monitor. Current market positioning puts it in a range where informed buyers sourcing from Japan can find real margin if they move carefully on condition.
Current US Market Value
The current US median for the M25407N sits at $4,195, based on 61 sales comps pulled from eBay. That sample size is solid enough to treat the median as genuinely representative rather than noise-driven. The interquartile range runs from $3,994 at the 25th percentile to $4,399 at the 75th percentile, a relatively tight $405 spread that signals consistent buyer demand and predictable clearing prices. Comp quality is rated 🟢 Verified, meaning these are confirmed transaction records rather than listing estimates. For anyone researching M25407N price benchmarks, this dataset is as close to ground truth as the gray market offers.
Active JDM Listings
Japan is currently showing active supply across both direct marketplace platforms and Yahoo Shopping storefronts, with six listings appearing in the past two weeks alone. Prices range from ¥502,800 on the low end for a used example up to ¥782,200 for an unknown-condition piece on Yahoo Shopping. That spread within Japan itself is worth noting, condition grading and seller type create significant variance before you even factor in currency and shipping costs. Anyone looking to buy M25407N Japan should pay close attention to which platform and condition tier they are working with.
- ¥502,800 on jp marketplace, listed as used (May 21)
- ¥518,000 on jp marketplace, condition unknown (May 21)
- ¥618,000 on jp marketplace, listed as used (May 21)
- ¥702,000 on jp marketplace, listed as excellent (May 21)
- ¥663,600 on Yahoo Shopping, listed as excellent (May 19)
Recent Alert History
Two opportunity-tier alerts fired on May 18, both within the same day, which suggests a short window of favorable pricing rather than persistent availability. The first logged a landed cost of $4,790 against a US median of $5,500 at the time, producing a 13% gross margin. The second came in tighter on cost at $4,341, widening the gross margin to 21% against the same US median reference. Opportunity tier is one step below a strict signal in Tonbo's alert framework, meaning the spread is real but not at the highest-conviction threshold. Two alerts in a single day indicates the model does move through the system with some regularity, even if strict-tier signals have not fired in the tracked window.
Japan vs. US Price Gap
The US-Japan price gap on the M25407N for sale appears to be driven by a combination of steady US collector demand for the FXD variant and a Japanese market where supply occasionally outpaces local appetite, particularly on storefronts moving volume through Yahoo Shopping. The alert history suggests landed costs can come in materially below the US median when timing and condition align. The primary risk factor here is what Tonbo flags as typical JDM sourcing risks, which on a dive watch like this centers on condition variance. Excellent-graded pieces from Japanese sellers can be genuinely excellent or optimistically described, and the difference between a clean FXD and one with case wear materially affects where it will clear on the US side. Buyers should factor authentication and condition verification into their landed cost model before acting on any signal from our signals tracker.
Get Real-Time Alerts for Tudor Pelagos FXD M25407N
Tonbo monitors M25407N listings across Japanese platforms continuously and fires alerts when landed cost versus US median spread crosses defined thresholds. If you want to be notified the next time an opportunity or strict-tier alert triggers on this reference, review the alert plan options here. For a broader look at what is moving right now across JDM watch markets, the free newsletter at tonbomarket.com covers active deals and market context on a regular cadence, and the deals feed surfaces current listings worth watching without a full subscription commitment.